Tuesday, 8 August 2017

Read Before Burning

I submit, for your reading necessity, the leaked draft of the

U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

Put together by experts from a dozen Federal departments and agencies, the report (I've only had time to read the summary and a few select pieces beyond it) reads much like any the IPCC reports, summarizing by consensus probabilities, and making several stark, clear statements:

Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gasses, are primarily responsible for observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate.
The annual occurrences of daily tidal flooding—exceeding local thresholds for minor impacts to infrastructure—have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities (very high confidence). Rates of increase, which are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities, are fastest where elevation thresholds are lower, local RSL rise is higher, or extreme variability is less (very high confidence). Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth and frequency in similar manners this century (very high confidence). 

For both the State of Alaska and for the Arctic as a whole, near-surface air temperature is increasing at a rate more than twice as fast as the global-average temperature. (Very high confidence)... Rising Alaskan permafrost temperatures are causing permafrost to thaw and become more discontinuous; this releases additional CO2 and CH4 resulting in additional warming (high confidence)... Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss are accelerating and Alaskan mountain glaciers continue to melt (very high confidence)... Alaskan coastal sea ice loss rates exceed the Arctic average (very high confidence)... Observed sea and land ice loss across the Arctic is occurring faster than climate models predict (very high confidence)... Melting trends are expected to continue resulting in late summers becoming nearly ice-free for the Arctic ocean by mid-century (very high confidence).
Why leaked? Perhaps because the finished copy is unlikely to ever see the untarnished light of day. Although I think it likely to be released now, there will be much subterfuge by the Trump government. Remember the mantra of the propagandists: "People don't know the difference between good science and bad science." The Trump administration can and will defame this report with whatever bullshit they want. The reality-based community will check, crossreference and rebut, but no one on the other side will listen or care. The many in the middle won't know what to think.

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